The hottest cotton price continues to fly PTA shou

2022-08-06
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Cotton prices continue to fly PTA raised the limit in response to the call to guard against high callback risk

recently, PTA futures rose steadily under the support of its own good fundamentals. Influenced by the obvious strengthening of cotton, PTA, which has a substitutive effect on cotton, has been renewed. This week, cotton and PTA ushered in "red Monday". American cotton once again set a new historical record, and Zheng cotton increased by more than 5%; PTA touched the daily limit in early trading

the sharp rise of cotton boosted PTA prices

on the 24th, zhengmian and meimian rose together. The opening price of zhengmian 1109's main contract was 31210 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 32120 yuan/ton, up 5.31%. Meimian also set a new record. Due to the substitution relationship between PTA downstream product polyester staple fiber and cotton, PTA futures rose strongly yesterday due to the boost of cotton price, and finally closed at 11622 yuan/ton

huangchengbao, an analyst at Anliang futures, said that cotton fundamentals were still tight on the whole, and the recent signing of trade orders by the Chinese delegation in the United States had a boost effect on American cotton, and buying pushed American cotton up the limit continuously. Although China is approaching the Spring Festival, most enterprises are optimistic about the market after the festival. The cotton spot price has risen steadily, and the yarn price has stopped falling and rebounded, indicating that the market sentiment has improved. From the trend in recent days, the capital intervention is more active, which has a strong role in promoting the futures price

with the strong cotton price, PTA also rose sharply. Industry insiders said that recently, PTA has risen steadily under the support of its own good fundamentals. Influenced by the obvious strengthening of cotton, PTA, which has a substitutive effect on cotton, has made renewed efforts

"under the high cotton price, firmly focusing on the goal of building a material power, the substitution effect of PTA downstream polyester products on cotton has been significantly enhanced, thus indirectly stimulating PTA consumption. At present, the price ratio of cotton to PTA is about 2.7, at a historical high, and the cotton price has an obvious boosting effect on PTA." Zhanjianping, an analyst at Hongyuan futures, said to

Liqing, an analyst of Xiangyu futures, also believes that the main reason for the sharp rise in PTA yesterday was stimulated by the rise in cotton. In addition, PTA has overall preference for fundamentals. With the Spring Festival approaching, downstream demand will gradually shrink. However, due to the continuous rise of upstream PX prices and the follow-up of downstream product prices, PTA traders have a preference for psychology, and there is no great pressure, so the prices are relatively firm

beware of high-level callback risk

for the future market of cotton, industry insiders believe that we should be careful of the risk of high-level pullback in the near future. Zhangjunling, an analyst at Dongxing futures, said, "cotton is still bullish in the medium term, but the recent rise is too fast, and there may be a possibility of falling back. Therefore, it is not recommended to pursue the rise. It is best to wait for the market to be stable and then bargain hunting."

Huang Chengbao believes that with the sharp rise for two consecutive days, the cotton price is approaching the high point in the early stage, and the risk of falling back is intensified. The price of the main 1109 contract is 3000 yuan/ton higher than that of the spot. It is suggested that investors should carefully pursue the rise and mainly hold low chips. Under the conditions that 2. The operating procedures of the electronic tensile testing machine allow funds, it is necessary for enterprises to maintain a small amount of value and pay attention to the support of 32000 yuan in the short term

as for the trend of PTA, insiders believe that it may be related to the trend of cotton price, so it is also necessary to guard against the callback risk. Analyst Li Qing said that if cotton continues to rise in the near future, PTA will still rise faster driven by it; However, cotton is facing high-level adjustment, so PTA rising momentum is limited. In addition, due to the recent gradual reduction of PTA spot trade, downstream manufacturers' work stoppages and holidays, the spot rise driven by futures lacks a certain market test. Before the holiday, no matter how the futures go, the impact on the spot is limited

"although PTA fundamentals are good, we should be vigilant against the callback risk after continuous sharp rise. If the price rises by more than 18% before the festival and most of them occur in the way of price limit, we need to be vigilant against favorable early overdraft and technical over rise." Li Qing told me

Shi Kangning, an analyst of Anliang futures, also said that in the medium and long term, PTA is still bullish, but the stocking of polyester plants was basically over years ago. The rising foam without the support of spot is relatively large, and it is expected to be mainly high-level consolidation this week

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