The hottest cotton prices are rising

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Cotton prices are on the rise

according to the monitoring of the market early warning system of the Ministry of agriculture, in terms of production: due to the decline in cotton planting benefits, cotton farmers' enthusiasm for cotton planting has weakened this year. It is estimated that the cotton planting area in China will decrease by more than 10% in 2005 compared with the previous year according to different classifications of spring experimental materials. Among them, the cotton areas in the Huang Huai River Basin decreased significantly, the cotton areas in the Yangtze River Basin decreased slightly, and the cotton areas in Xinjiang were basically stable. According to the prediction of the Agricultural Technology Extension Service Center of the Ministry of agriculture, cotton diseases and insect pests in China will be more serious this year

in terms of import and export: the cotton import fell back in February, but it still increased this year. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the medium temperature of China's net import of cotton in February was 70500 tons, a decrease of 42000 tons over the previous month. Among them, 70500 tons were imported in that month, a year-on-year decrease of 75.8%; Exports were 42 tons, down 96.7%; The trade deficit narrowed to US $81.68 million. In February, cotton exports were all general trade, mainly to Japan and Indonesia. The import is mainly in the form of general trade, with the import volume of 48600 tons, accounting for 60.9% of the total import volume; Feed processing accounted for 30.9%. Imported cotton mainly comes from the United States, Uzbekistan, Greece, Benin and other countries. Among them, 37400 tons were imported from the United States, accounting for 53.1% of the total imports

judgment of domestic supply and demand: when the cotton output in 2004 was 6.32 million tons, there was still a gap in China's cotton production and demand in 2004/05, which needs to be made up through import and inventory. It is estimated that the ending inventory of cotton in 2004/05 is slightly lower than that in the previous year. In 2005/06, the national cotton production and demand shortage will expand again

judgment of international supply and demand: according to the prediction of the International Cotton Advisory Committee in March, the global cotton output in 2004/05 reached a record 25.43 million tons, an increase of 4.77 million tons or 23.1% over the previous year; The global cotton consumption will increase to the historical peak of 22.85 million tons, an increase of 7.4%; Compared with the production and demand, the global output in that year will exceed the textile cotton consumption by 2.58 million tons, and the global ending inventory of this year will rise to 10.36 million tons, the same as that in 2001/02

domestic price trend: in 2005, the purchase and sales prices of cotton in the domestic market showed an obvious upward trend. In late March, the average purchase price of domestic grade 3 cotton was 2.36 yuan/kg, and the converted lint cotton was 576 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.1 over the beginning of the year, generally taking 80 × 80mm or 80mm wide strip is 15 yuan/kg, with an increase of 6.8%; It was 0.31 yuan/kg higher than the lowest price in late October last year, up 15.1%. While the purchase price of cotton rebounded, the sales price of cotton also continued to rise. As of March 28, the weekly average price of domestic 328 grade cotton (ccindex 328) rose to 12031 yuan/ton, up 6.8% over the beginning of the year and down 30.9% year-on-year

international price trend: at the beginning of the year, the international market price rose slowly, but since March, the rate of increase has accelerated significantly. As of March 28, but no one "received the order", the weekly average price of cotton in the international market (British cotton outlook Far East index cotlookfe) has risen to 54.46 cents/pound, equivalent to 11542 yuan/ton CIF at Chinese ports, up 6.93 cents/pound from the beginning of the year, up 14.6%, down 23.6% year-on-year

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